2016 Healthcare Exchange Data now available!

Open Enrollment for 2016 is complete! And with it another round of renewed QHP plans. Let's revisit the eligibility box plots that we generated last year to see if the 2014 --> 2015 --> 2016 trend looks different. Below is a Box plot of Eligible APTC across all 3 enrollment years- 2014, 2015, 2016:

Now, if we pivot in the enrollment year to see the spread year over year, we get the following chart:

Notice the change in the boxes year over year? The Greenrepresenting2016is generally higher than the 2015 results. Also, we see that the outlier values do not change much too, with the exception of Tax Household Size = 1.

Layering in the data distributions, we see some interesting changes year over year:

  • Average and Median Qualified (Eligible) APTC trends upwards for most Tax Household sizes. This means households are getting a few more dollars of APTC to pay for their 2016 coverage than in 2015. This is an expected trend with the current inflation rate and FPL% increases.
  • There are some negative changes in the outlier distribution and spread between 2015 and 2016. This is unexpected as one would expect to see less distribution and less quantity of the outliers year over year as the system data becomes cleaner and less prone to error.
  • Tax Household Size = 2 continues to see a large distribution above the quartile box across all three years. This might be 100% expected or it could be a sign that there is a subset that is incorrectly receiving statistically more APTC than the remainder of the population. This might be worth exploring in a future post!
  • Tax HH Size = 4 has the highest number of outliers in 2016 with 39households outside the statistical norm.

Overall, not many surprises in the data, the rough trend of APTC continues year over year. I hope to revisit certain aspects of this analysis in future posts, such as Tax HH Size = 2. In addition, OE2017 is right around the corner and with passive renewals occurring very soon at the healthcare exchanges,  I hope to have 2017 really soon. Stay tuned for further updates!